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Home > Feb 2026 update

Feb 2026 update

March 6th, 2026 at 06:47 pm

I don't always do monthly updates because either not a whole lot happens anymore now that I am retired, or some negative stuff can happen, so it's better to not look at it?  I can't help but feel that this is one of those negative months.  On the other hand, trying to make sense of the negative phenomenon happening in the world is sometimes worth mentioning, so here I am.

Despite being questioned for not releasing the Epstein Files, properly and in a timely manner, Pam Bondi's most intellectually thought-provoking response was that "The Dow is over 50,000 right now." Frosting on top, it almost sounded like she wanted to say it's $50,000 dollars.  What... in the... world?!  I would be laughing from the comedy of it all, if this wasn't the actual tragedy of our real life right now.

In the beginning of Feb 2026, the DJI was indeed over 50,000.  However, it is now currently sitting at 47,414, a drop of roughly 5.39%.  That's quite a correction for a single month.

And what does that mean to me?  Well, that roughly translates into a $26k loss in my total portfolio value, both taxable and retirement combined.

Moreover, that's AFTER I've rebalanced my portfolio to be much less aggressive, because I was anticipating more negative pressure from the Trump administration doing their best to clown their way through the US economy, and taking credit for its resilience despite this administration's own best effort to sink it through sheer incompetence.

Speaking of negative pressure, the latest jobs report for Feb 2026 just came out, and it was a net loss of 92,000 jobs.  Say, didn't Trump fire the Bureau of Labor and Statistics lady to make sure no negative job reporting could be made during his administration?  If so, why is it still making such a gloomy report?  Or, heaven forbid, is this the best glow-up the Trump-revised BLS can come up with, and the reality could be even worse?

The war with Iran, or "not-a-war" if this administration is to be believed... well regardless of what you want to call it, is having the unintended consequence of shocking the oil market to above $91 per barrel right now.  That's great news for Big Oil and human rights violators that may or may not be members of OPEC, but something tells me that we the average citizens might end up paying a bit more at the pump again.  According to the internet, the average price of gasoline has spiked 38% in the past 30 days....

Back to my own life, one of the key challenges of retiring early is being self-sustaining through just my own money alone.  In other words, until I am "all grown up", I am currently unable to access my retirement funds (without penalty), or social security, or medicare/medicaid, or even my annuity (yes, I actually have one).  Until I am able to do so, I have to be extra careful with my currently-limited financial bucket, and it seems nothing this administration is doing is helping the average American at all.

To end on a more upbeat note, despite the political clown show, I am still hanging in there, doing my best to be frugal, and it also somewhat proves that my portfolio can be resilient enough to weather this storm.  So far.  I really hope we don't end up in another recession though.

11 Responses to “Feb 2026 update”

  1. Dido Says:
    1773016413

    I know, it's frustrating, isn't it? How much (not nec $$ but in years of spending if you'd rather) do you have in the "financial bucket" you are currently living off of? I'm really just beginning to focus on filling that bucket; I put my 401k contributions down to the minimum needed to get the full company contribution and am starting to focus on filling the taxable account bucket instead, hoping to accrue 2-3 years of spending needs in there before I retire.

  2. Tabs Says:
    1773152904

    Uh, that feels a bit too personal for me reveal haha, especially to an eagle-eyed number-cruncher such as yourself. But you know what, I will try to answer this one time because you might have some helpful insight as well. Roughly speaking, my taxable principle is equivalent to over 10 years worth of living, relative to my monthly budget.

    However, I am also able to live on the interest alone. In fact, I am currently under-budget in that my taxable investments are currently making more interest than I am spending every month. So far anyway, and I’d like to keep it that way.

    On the other hand, depending on the market conditions (someone tell Trump to stop driving the clown car), and as I learn more in time, my investments and the resulting interest are most likely subject to change. For now, I am actively keeping an eye on it… almost daily in fact, and I know I really shouldn’t do that haha.

    But that’s basically how I know I was able to retire early, because the principle alone should be able to last me until I turn 60 and my retirement buckets become available. Though again, I am currently living on interest alone, so I haven’t had to touch the principle amount, and it’s even growing slightly.

    My retirement buckets are completely untouched, and I am leaving it to grow for at least another 8 years before I take a look and figure out what to do about it.

  3. Dido Says:
    1773232590

    It sounds as though you are in great shape with 10 years of living expenses in your taxable accounts and being able to live on the interest alone (all interest? or interest and dividends?, i.e., bonds vs stocks). That is admirable.

    To the extent that things are in bonds, I'm sure you know that when interest rates rise, bond prices (values) fall. But falls in values are only "paper" losses until you actually sell an investment and lock in the loss. It's harder (more expensive) for individual investors to buy corporate bonds, but I know the firm I work for has provided a lot of value to clients by buying short-term individual corporate bonds at attractive yields. The past few months the relative attractiveness of those bonds has been a bit less (less of a "credit spread" between the yield provided by US treasuries and corporate bonds of a similar duration); the war is leading to some opening up of opportunities in that space.

    As long as you are not acting on the looking at investments, it doesn't do any harm, except possibly to your mental well-being! Congrats on being in such an admirable place at a relatively young age.

  4. patientsaver Says:
    1773237977

    I have not looked at my investment balances since Rump invaded and attacked Iran. I think I'd rather not.

    I think what happened with the bureau of labor statistics is that Rump fired the commissioner, but there is still staff there.

    Heating oil prices have jumped from $3.45 a gallon to $4.24 a gallon since 2 weeks ago when Rump attacked.

  5. Tabs Says:
    1773293741

    Dido, thanks to folks like you and others on SA (and elsewhere) for helping me get here. I was actually here many years ago (well, you can tell since this blog alone started back in 2009) but in any case, I needed and got a lot of help, because only until quite recently, everything felt so hopeless, and it seemed it was all I could do to stay afloat from financially drowning.

    And while I am currently living off of interest and dividends, there are two related factors that I’d like to clarify. First, none of this is possible unless I am just a boring guy who wears an plain old T-shirt with holes in it. In short, I push down my monthly expenses, and therefore budget, as low as I comfortably can. If my spending gets out of hand, then yeah, none of this is going to work.

    The other factor is that, I do take some very aggressive investment risks, chasing high yields and dividends to pay for my monthly expenses…. This is the part I am reluctant to elaborate on, because I know that it’s probably not a long term solution, and it might even blow up on my face some day. Then again, I am personally not adverse to this level of risk, and I can always change my mind and rebalance back to more reliable investments at any time… which I will most likely to do at some point in the future.

    Patient, you know what really bothers me about all the the negative pressures? It’s the fact that they are all completely preventable. Trump did not have to agree to bombing Iran. Trump did not have to fire the BLS commissioner or threaten the Fed chair Jerome Powell. Nor did he have to raise global tariffs, even after the republican-dominated Supreme Court has ruled that the President does not have the authority to impose tariffs. It’s almost as though the country would be in a better place if he just literally slept all day, and spend the rest of his waking hours playing golf. That’s such an insane thought to me, that somebody could be worse than useless. It is such a weird world we live in right now, especially with all the people out there who somehow still support him too. Completely insane.

  6. Dido Says:
    1773505365

    The key is really *where* you take the risk. Regardless of actual allocation in the accounts, it is helpful to at least THINK of some portion of your assets as providing for current living expenses--ideally 2-3 years or more if you are more risk-averse, in cash-equivalents. Ideally this would be in a bank or brokerage account so there would be no tax consequences for withdrawal.

    Then you want to think of a bucket for medium-term expenses, say years 3-8 or 10, where you allocate to bonds because they--and especially either US Treasuries or individual corporate bonds--are more safe and secure money. Short-duration (up to 3 years) will have less volatility than longer-term bonds. Individual bonds are safer than bond funds because there is a known duration and you expect to get your investment back, while receiving interest along the way. With bond funds, which have a whole mix of bonds of various durations, the value of the bonds drops when inflation is high, and if you have to use the funds ("realize" the gain or loss), your investment could be depleted for real, not just on paper. For the most part, individual bonds would be held in tax-deferred accounts since they will be taxed at ordinary income tax rates in any case.

    Then for the longer-term, say years 8 on, that is where you want to focus your riskier investments, because there will be time for them to recover. Since those funds are taxed at capital gains rates if held for at least a year and a day, you would likely hold them in taxable accounts or Roth accounts. Roth accounts are typically where the riskiest investments are held because it is generally assumed that these will be the last funds to be used. On the other hand, if you don't have a liquid (cash) account, then having some of the Roth in cash can be decent strategy because you won't be taxed on withdrawing your original contributions as long as the 5-year rule has been met.

    During retirement, the idea is that you typically live off the cash investments. If the markets are up, you use gains during the year from the mid and long-term buckets to replenish the cash bucket. If the markets have been down, then you might not replenish the cash bucket at all that year. I'd recommend this blog post (and this blog) to your attention: https://www.theretirementmanifesto.com/how-to-refill-your-buckets-in-retirement/

  7. Dido Says:
    1773506418

    Also note that the cash need depends on your other sources of income. Once you have Social Security coming in (and possibly a pension and/or an annuity), those guaranteed sources of income reduce the cash needed from your portfolio each year.

  8. Tabs Says:
    1773512188

    Ok, great insight. Thank you for sharing the saving advices haha.

  9. rob62521 Says:
    1773610673

    Sadly, my retirement accounts have also taken a huge hit...I've lost around $22K. Fortunately I haven't been using any of the money for everyday living, but I feel sorry for those who are. The whatever they are calling it in Iran is scary not only financially but otherwise since we don't know exactly what is going to come of it.

  10. Tabs Says:
    1773618069

    A Marine Expeditionary Unit (MEU) has been deployed to the Strait of Hormuz to essentially “kidnap and hold ransom” the Iranian oil refineries there, in an effort to force Iran to re-open the Strait, which let me clarify belongs to them. That’s the strategic equivalent of, if you run a lemonade business, to get burly guys to go to your stand and steal your money, and if you don’t open your lemonade business back up again, they will burn your money. What in the fucking LSD-induced fever dream bullshit is this?

    In the meantime, literal millions of Iranian civilians, who were already suffering have also been displaced to get away from the fighting, and I believe the fatalities also number in the thousands. I would be surprised if a new ISIS cell don’t pop up from all this. But hey, anything to distract from the Epstein Files apparently.

  11. patientsaver Says:
    1774710118

    Tabs, I agree 100%. We'd be in better shape if he just played golf all day.

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